Industry analyst SNL Kagan forecasts a big decline in U.S. multichannel video subscriber homes:
- 2015: 98.1 million.
- 2027: 77.4 million.
- That’s down 21%.
- There are 119.6 million U.S. TV Homes today.
- According to SNL Kagan the online video subscriber base will expand to 94.6 million homes from around 80 million today.
- The SVOD category is led by Netflix and Amazon, followed by Hulu.
- These are supplemented by an expanding buffet of niche services, including documentary specialists like CuriosityStream.
- Many consumers subscribe to multiple SVOD services, as well as to a multichannel package from their cable operator.
- Most channels will lose revenues as their subscriber counts fall, though these losses are partially offset by annual increases in long-term distribution contracts.
- Because their reach is contracting, channels will also lose ad revenues even if their ratings are steady.
- Media buyers and brands are pushing back against the Wild West of online advertising.
- Analysts see a return to broadcast and cable networks that offer larger scale than mobile and online video, and that are also properly verified and increasingly addressable.
- Read “Will Data Resurrect TV?” by leading analyst Ed DeNicola.
Downhill is not Sunset
- Cable isn’t falling off a cliff like the CD or newspaper businesses in recent decades.
- The cable operators enjoy a ‘Triple Play’ business model that packages their costly video product with highly profitable Internet and Telephone services.
- Operators will need lots of channels for the foreseeable future. And channels always need new programs.
- Combined, the channels will continue to spend billions on nonfiction programming.
- They will regularly refresh their lists of go-to producers.
Scale Will Still Matter:
- The U.S. will remain the #2 largest cable market worldwide after China.
- Its 77 million subscribers are desirable, wealthy consumers by global standards.
- Declining advertising and subscriber revenues will force most networks to trim programming expenses.
- Channels will be driven to find economies in headcount and in the production budgets of their suppliers.
- There will be more defensive consolidations like the recent Discovery / Scripps deal.
- Many of 2027’s projected 77.4 million multichannel subscribers will have adopted “skinny bundles” that offer them their most preferred channels, dropping the marginal ones.
- The skinny bundle trend will force many marginal channels to go online or close.
SVOD Shrinks The Ecosystem
- SVOD won’t replace these rolling cutbacks in the channels’ program pipelines and expenditures.
- The SVOD model features a handful of promotable documentaries and factual series that are supplemented by acquisitions of completed programs.
Back to the ‘Eighties + ‘Nineties
- Many channels are turning from Reality-based schedules by commissioning the classic factual programs that built their brands in the first place.
- The recent headline “A&E Resurrects ‘Biography’ Franchise” captures the trend.
- To contain costs, U.S. programmers are taking a 2nd look at co-productions and acquisitions.
- This is potentially good news for the well-funded European public broadcasters, their producers and distributors.
- The shrinking U.S. cable/satellite audience also gives a good look for PBS, which is fully distributed, and earns audiences that may be older, but whose scale is the envy of most factual cable channels.
“All Tentpole / No Tent.”
- Program execs are beginning to pay more attention to the artisans who create affordable programs that attract viewers and then deliver them from one hour to the next.
- My next post covers the shifting balance betwen auteurs and artisans.